Empirical Analysis of the Relation to Output, Money Supply and Inflation
نویسندگان
چکیده
The central bank needs to predict the macroeconomic conditions in the future when it makes a new monetary policy. Namely, we make the optimal monetary policy with a comprehensive analysis on the domestic output, money supply and inflation rate. This article selects the datum of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the People's Bank of China, and the Customs Statistics Information Network as the sample data for analysis and study .It is found that the estimation of the nominal output and the rate of inflation by FM model among the four kinds of variable structure model—Polynomial model、WG model, RS model and FM model is most consistent with the actual situation. At last, it is verified that a condition of opening Taylor rules doesn’t accord with China's national conditions which is based on the Vensim.
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تاریخ انتشار 2012